Wednesday, April 12, 2006

ANALYSIS: won

WON



Westwood One Inc. looks horrible. I found it using the strategy discussed here, and WON just happened to be one of crappiest looking stocks in one of the worst industries right now, General Entertainment.

I suspect the industry's current crappiness has to do with interest rate worries stemming all the way back to the last rate couple rate hike announcements. Since entertainment is so sensitive to oil prices and rate hikes, and with oil prices rising and the economy still looking strong, I thought the General Entertainment industry would be a good short-term industry to short.

Out of all the stocks in General Entertainment, WON has particulary looked unattractive as it has been hitting new 52-week lows consistently (in fact, today it hit a new 52-week low) while maintaining a strong downtrend. I had a few concerns getting into the stock today; the full stochastic is still showing oversold (I'll explain this more in a future tutorial... for now and for those who don't know, all you need to know is that 20 is oversold while 80 is overbought), the stock took a 5% drop today, and the market will most likely recover a little after the beating it has taken in the last couple of days. However, with the concerns over oil prices, Sharon's death, and the strength in the economy (which will lead to higher interest rates), I think there will be enough bad news to sustain the downtrend. Also, it appears that the 20 day EMA, which as I've talked about can act as support in uptrends, has provided strong resistance to any upward price movements on WON.

I entered at 10.49 and I'll be getting out if it ever closes the day above the 20 day EMA.

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